Forecasters predict below-average hurricane season, advise against complacency

Haiyan Jiang, a meteorologist at Florida International University, said there was a high chance of a strong El Niño that could boost water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.

“We probably won’t have as many number of storms as previous years. However, some storms get lucky,” she said. “We see outliers all the time, especially with hurricanes. So I believe Floridians, we need to get prepared.”

2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names

The NWS outlook was for overall seasonal activity and did not include predictions for when or where hurricanes might make landfall, as that is determined by short-lived weather patterns, said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service. NOAA said there was a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

Forecasters at Colorado State University similarly predicted a below-average season, with 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The forecasters said waters in the western tropical Atlantic were warmer than normal but the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic were slightly cooler than normal. They said a warmer Atlantic also tends to lead to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, which can boost hurricane activity.

The Colorado State forecasters said the probability of a hurricane making landfall was 32 percent for the entire US coastline, 15 percent for the US East Coast including the Florida peninsula, and 20 percent for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas.

Alessi pointed out that although no hurricanes made landfall in the US last year, Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica as a category 5 storm. Melissa caused nearly $9 billion in damage and 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.

“Just because it’s a below-average season doesn’t mean a very powerful hurricane won’t make landfall in the United States,” he said.

This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, non-partisan news organization that covers climate, energy, and the environment. Sign up for their newsletter here.